Texarkana, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

842
FXUS64 KSHV 141536
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1036 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Visible satellite imagery is displaying mostly clear skies across
the CWA with a light cu field in western LA. Interestingly, there
also appears to be some elevated dust blowing into the Four State
Region from the northwest. The morning forecast is on track, with
adjustments only being made to reduce the sky cover in southwest
AR and northern LA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Today will start an extended period of above normal temps across
the region, as mid 60s to near 70 dewpoints have advected N into
SE OK/Wrn AR along and S of a sfc trough that extends from a
broad area of low pressure extended from Ern CO into NW OK.
Meanwhile, a broad upper level trough has dug S into the Great
Basin this morning, with the Srn extent of the trough ejecting NE
from the Four Corners Region into the Cntrl Plains this afternoon,
thus shifting flat ridging aloft from the Srn Plains into the MS
Valley. The presence of the sfc/attendant low level trough
extending from SE OK and bisecting our region to the SE has
resulted in quite the SWrly LLJ across the area, with the latest
KSHV VAD depicting 60-70kt between 0.5-1.0km (2-3kft), with some
mixing translating to some ~25kt wind gusts already across
portions of NE TX. The latest hi-res guidance suggests that some
locally higher wind gusts nearing 35kts may be possible with the
onset of mixing by mid-morning, before the SWrly LLJ axis shifts
NE out of the region by midday. Thus, wind speeds/gusts should
diminish by midday and level off for the afternoon below Advisory
criteria, and given the brevity of these gusts this morning, will
hold off on a Wind Advisory for portions of NE TX/N LA/Srn AR and
will continue to monitor/advise the day shift.

The primary story will be the increasing heat, with the hottest
temps so far this year expected today as winds transition to SW
with the departing sfc trough. Morning low stratus evident on the
satellite imagery over portions of Lower Toledo Bend Country into
Cntrl and NE LA is thin enough such that these cigs should quickly
scatter out by mid-morning, with the elevated AC/cirrus cigs
expected to diminish as well later this morning. Given that 08Z
temps are in the lower to mid 70s areawide and will likely hold
status quo through daybreak, the max temp forecast will get a head
start to reach the lower to mid 90s areawide, as additional low
level dry air above the bndry lyr mixes ENE in wake of the
departing low level trough. While the triple digit heat will
remain well to our W over portions of N and Cntrl TX near and W of
the Ewd mixing dryline, near record heat is expected today
especially over E TX, but have toned down max temps a couple
degrees cooler than the previous forecast given the effects of the
stronger winds and wet soils from recent rainfall. Heat indices
should also remain shy of Advisory criteria, only nearing 100
degrees this afternoon.

While ridging aloft will amplify tonight over the MS Valley,
elevated cigs will increase and thicken overnight across the area,
with Srly winds maintaining mixing such that min temps should hold
greater than 70 degrees over most areas. A weak cool front still
remain progged to drop SE into Ern and Srn OK into N TX Thursday
morning, becoming stationary just NW of the region from the Ozarks
into SE OK/NCntrl TX. The low level moisture profile still remains
progged to be quite shallow near and just ahead of this bndry,
although some of the latest guidance suggests that enough moisture
may be present and capping may weaken enough for isolated
convection to develop in the afternoon near this front, aided by
weak perturbations aloft in the SW flow. Ample shear and
instability will exist near this front and should isolated
convection develop, could be strong to severe, hence the Day 2 SPC
Marginal Risk mainly along/NW of the I-30 corridor of NE TX/SW AR.
This threat remains quite conditional though, but given some hint
in the hi-res guidance that convection could develop, have
inserted slight chance pop mention Thursday afternoon NW of I-30.
The increase in elevated cigs with persistent Srly low level winds
should result in slightly cooler max temps Thursday afternoon, but
still hot and humid (but below record territory) nonetheless.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Should any isolated convection develop Thursday afternoon near or
just SE of the stationary sfc bndry, this should diminish during
the evening as the bndry lyr cools, with this bndry lifting back N
and washing out early Friday morning. A second weak sfc front
remains progged to shift SE into Ern and Srn OK Friday afternoon,
before easing SE into NCntrl AR with the Wrn extent of the bndry
stalling aloft the Red River Valley of Srn OK/N TX. Low level
moisture should begin to deepen ahead of this next front Friday,
with the persistent (and unsettled SW flow aloft) helping to focus
the potential for isolated convection by afternoon NW of the I-30
corridor, while potentially more concentrated just N of the area
over Wrn and Cntrl AR along the front. This convection may
reinforce the bndry S into SW AR late Friday night, with diurnal
heating contributing to adequate instability Saturday once
additional weaknesses aloft traverse atop the front. Thus,
scattered convection should develop along and N of I-20 Saturday
afternoon/night, before ridging aloft begins to build back N ahead
of the next deep trough that will dig into the Desert SW late this
weekend. Although not currently outlooked in the Day 4 outlook
from SPC, would not be surprised to see some severe potential
develop especially given the available shear and extent of
instability expected. Srly low level winds should again result in
the weak sfc bndry/front to wash out by Sunday afternoon, with
convection becoming focusing farther N into SE/Ern OK and
Wrn/Cntrl AR atop the building ridge.

SW flow will continue though across the Srn Plains W of the
amplifying ridge to start the new work week, thus deflecting the
primary storm track to our W and NW. But this may be temporary
though pending how strong and far SE the attendant trough axis is
able to suppress the ridging in place, with the potential for
clusters of convection to shift E into the region Tuesday. The
chance for severe can not be ruled out Tuesday afternoon/night as
well, before slightly cooler and drier conditions return in wake
of this next trough passage by the end of the extended period
(midweek).

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR through daybreak with some MVFR
cigs possible on the gusty SW wind with heating. On the SFC S/SW
winds will be 10-20G24-30KT strongest in E TX. Any low cigs
become VFR around midday with more of the same in store for us to
end this work week with a gusty low level SW jet and some more
LLWS overnight. Repeat to start for Friday, but with chance at
late day convection. And more of that to come and go over the
weekend ahead of weak fropa touch & go. /24/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  73  94  77 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  92  71  93  75 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  94  69  87  70 /   0  10  20  10
TXK  96  73  92  75 /   0   0  10  10
ELD  93  69  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  73  92  76 /   0   0  10  10
GGG  94  72  92  75 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  95  72  94  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...24