Texarkana, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

529
FXUS64 KSHV 211931
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
231 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

A uniform layer of cumulus and warm temperatures have been the
story this afternoon across the Four State Region. There still
remains a slight chance that as the late afternoon seabreeze
boundary advances further north, stray showers and an isolated
thunderstorm or two may briefly emerge. If this were to
materialize, it would only survive through sunset before daytime
heating is cut off. That being said, another warm and muggy night
is expected with lows in the mid and upper 70`s.

For Sunday, the center of the upper ridge will be displaced more to
the northeast when compared to this afternoon. Surface winds will
become more south to southeast, with afternoon temperatures once
again climbing easily into the 90`s. Prevailing southerlies off
the gulf will continue to support elevated dew point temperatures,
thus helping heat indices climb above 100 deg F. Questions do
surround the influence of possible convection through the
afternoon, and how that impacts peak heat indices. 12z hi-res and
CAMs continue to suggest mid afternoon isolated showers and
storms, though PoPs only remain slight chance. It is possible that
another Heat Advisory will be needed tomorrow, but electing to
wait for another round of data to come in before issuance. Bottom
line, it will still be hot. The evening and mid crews will make
the call for the overnight package, similar to this morning.

KNAPP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Into the new work week, expect for a lot of the same song and dance
as the last few days with highs climbing into the mid and upper 90`s
and heat indices in the triple digits. The aforementioned ridge
looks to remain parked across the Mid-Atlantic states through
much of the long term period, resulting in the continuation of
onshore flow, with daily afternoon showers and thunderstorm
chances. With the upper ridge influence, the 6-10 day temperature
outlook from the Climate Prediction Center calls for around a
50-60 percent chance that temperatures are above average. This
ties in nicely to the extended 3-7 day forecast where afternoon
highs will be anywhere from 2-4 deg F above the norm.

Though the onshore pattern will support the chance for daily showers
and thunderstorms, QPF amounts through day 7 remain rather limited
as convective coverage will be spotty. Given that the bulk of the
rainfall opportunity depends on how far north the coastal seabreeze
advances, highest PoPs in the extended are confined to areas along
and south of I-20. That being said, 7 day QPF amounts are generally
less than half an inch. Towards the back end of the long term
period, global guidance advertises a slight retrograde of the
aforementioned ridge, potentially finding itself parked back over
the ArkLaTex by the end of this week, though slightly weaker.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025
Lots of MVFR ceilings through the morning hours as southerly flow
brings Gulf moisture northward. These lower ceilings have mixed
out to a scattered cumulus field over the last few hours with
cloud bases ranging from 2.5 to 5 kft. Expect the cloud bases to
increase in height further as we go through the afternoon.
Guidance suggests isolated late afternoon to early evening
convection, mainly south of I-20. VCTS was included for a few
hours at LFK, but elsewhere the potential is not zero - but too
low to include in the TAFs at this juncture. Expect somewhat gusty
surface winds from the south to south-southwest this afternoon
with sustained speeds of 10 to 15 mph and gusts occasionally to 25
mph, especially in western zones. Any late day convection should
be gone by mid-evening with guidance suggesting lower early
morning MVFR stratus more confined to LFK, GGG, and TYR. Some
locations farther east/northeast than this could experience an
hour or two of sub-VFR ceilings tomorrow morning after daybreak,
but confidence in this is low right now. Early guidance
suggestions are that tomorrow afternoon could feature a bit more
convection than this afternoon in at least southern zones, but
storms should hold off until after midday at the earliest. /50/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  96  77  96 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  76  94  76  94 /  10  20  10  30
DEQ  72  92  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  76  97  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  74  95  74  94 /   0   0  10  20
TYR  75  92  74  92 /  10   0   0  10
GGG  73  93  73  93 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  73  93  73  94 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...None.
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-112-126-137-
     138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...50